Nagasaki
長崎 · 長崎県
Autumn colour outlook
Wed, Oct 21
Maple
Unlikely
Ginkgo
Unlikely
These curves follow one maple and one ginkgo tree in Nagasaki; temples and parks can peak at different times.
How the city score is calculated
- Japan Meteorological Corporation forecasts Nagasaki's maple to colour on Dec 13 (round 2, released Oct 1).
- Its past forecasts typically missed by 6.1 days.
- In Nagasaki, peak usually lasts 12 days, from colouring to leaf-fall (median, JMA records).
- Method: the JMC forecast blended 50/50 with the last ~9 years of JMA records, both updated as days pass without colouring.
- Future days are capped at 85%: weeks ahead, nothing is certain.
- JMA has not yet recorded colouring of Nagasaki's specimen maple.
- In a normal year (1991–2020) the maple colours around Dec 7.
Ginkgo
- Japan Meteorological Corporation forecasts Nagasaki's ginkgo to colour on Dec 9 (round 2, released Oct 1).
- Its past forecasts typically missed by 4.9 days.
- In Nagasaki, peak usually lasts 5 days, from colouring to leaf-fall (median, JMA records).
- Method: the JMC forecast blended 50/50 with the last ~10 years of JMA records, both updated as days pass without colouring.
- Future days are capped at 85%: weeks ahead, nothing is certain.
- JMA has not yet recorded colouring of Nagasaki's specimen ginkgo.
- In a normal year (1991–2020) the ginkgo colours around Dec 5.